HeraldNet: Did one poll give two results?



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The Petri Dish

July 15, 2008

Did one poll give two results?

Posted at 12:01 am by Jerry Cornfield

Democratic Rep. Liz Loomis led Republican challenger Mike Hope by six points in a poll conducted late last month by the House Democratic Campaign Committee.

That edge in a survey of 400 likely voters in the 44th Legislative District - split evenly among Democrats, Republicans and independents – is good news for Loomis who was appointed to the job in January and targeted for defeat this fall by the GOP.

But Hope is pretty confident that he led Loomis in the same poll among the same voters.

Is that possible?It's common for participants in polls to be asked twice who they are inclined to support. Often one of the first questions to them is something like, “If the election were held today…”. Then, after hearing a series of comments about each candidate – their plusses and minuses - the participants are again asked who they might support.

Republicans who made me aware of the poll insist Hope led Loomis after the initial query of who might get their vote. They don't dispute her advantage - they just say it came at the end of the poll.

I phoned the House Democratic Campaign Committee several times this past week seeking a clear explanation. Veteran Democrat strategist Christian Sinderman, who is consulting for Loomis, called back but shed no light on the situation,

“We’re not confirming anything and we’re not providing any copy of the poll,” he said.

“Mike Hope and the Republicans can continue to say what they want about a poll they have not seen and did not pay for. It’s an internal document and that’s where it is going to stay,” he said.

This is no small deal for Hope who lost in 2004 and 2006 against Rep. Hans Dunshee in this same legislative district.

In March, while he was unsure whether to run, the House Republican Organizational Committee conducted a poll of 300 people that showed him ahead of Loomis. Those numbers helped convince him to go forward.

“This was clear evidence that we were beating her in March, that we’re beating her today and I plan on beating her in the primary and general elections,” Hope said.

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