HeraldNet: Poll Mania II: Gregoire leads Rossi in the state, trails in slice of Snohomish County



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The Petri Dish

July 14, 2008

Poll Mania II: Gregoire leads Rossi in the state, trails in slice of Snohomish County

Posted at 5:59 pm by Jerry Cornfield

Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire and Republican Dino Rossi are each finding something to crow about in recent polls of voters regarding the race for governor.

But Democrats also stumbled onto some sour data for her and sweet news for him in Snohomish County.

To begin, one way to track results of all the different polls is here at pollster.com which is a one-stop shop for surveys.

As you’ll see, Moore Information put out numbers today showing the race to be a dead heat with Gregoire and Rossi each pulling 45 percent of those surveyed.

To see Moore's data, go here.

Gregoire’s campaign responded that Rossi paid for the poll and thus got the positive results he wanted as he headed out of state for a fundraiser.

Her team cited data from two recent polls - Rasmussen Reports and the Elway Poll – showing the incumbent governor ahead of the incumbent challenger.

In Rasmussen’s latest tally, Gregoire held a six point advantage. And Elway's survey found she had an eight-point edge, 47 - 39.

In a survey nobody is talking about yet Rossi led Gregoire by seven points in a poll done by Democrats in the 44th Legislative District in Snohomish County. The survey of 400 likely voters done late last month was paid for by the House Democratic Campaign Committee.

I haven’t yet been given precise numbers – if you get them, tell me.

This is notable news because the 44th District is a traditionally swing district in a battleground county that Rossi won in 2004. Gregoire is focused on taking it in 2008..

The same survey found Democratic Rep. Liz Loomis and presumed Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama ahead in their respective races. On the ballot, the governor's race is sandwiched between the races involving those two.

What these numbers reveal, for now, is a snapshot of the governor's ongoing challenge to win over independent-minded voters in this district.

Is this a broader problem? We'll have to wait for the next poll to find out.

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Loomis poll numbers
That poll the Democrats ran was what's called an "informed ballot" poll. It's kind of like a push poll.

They ask voters "if you knew that Jerry Cornfield steels food from babies, would you be more or less likely to vote for him?"

Of course this news disturbs voters about Mr. Cornfield so they answer appropriately. It's a common method to move poll numbers and that's what the Democrats used.

That's probably why we haven't seen any news about the poll, Jerry. They haven't released it because it's very bad news for Loomis and good news for Mike Hope and the Republicans in the 44th. Hope is up by double digits in a head-to-head matchup. The only way they can get Loomis' numbers to a tiny lead is to throw a bunch of negatives at him and then ask them "You still gonna vote for this bad guy?"

I'd love to see that poll linked on your site, Jerry! It would be a good civics and political lesson for your readers.
Chad Minnick | Jul 15, 2008 6:59 pm | 0 replies | View all | Post reply | Request removal

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